Thursday, October 06, 2011

More Polling Foolery

Ok, so yesterday the Telegram said that the results were
NDP23% and Liberals 9%

Now today they're claiming
NDP18% and Liberals 12%

Read the story here...

I'll tell you one thing I expect: 2 NDP seats, and their placing second in about 12 ridings. Second place does not win in our electoral system.

I'm also expecting about 12 Liberals. Because they will come from rural, west-coast and Labrador ridings that don't count in MQO and CRA polls. Just like these rural west-coast and Labrador ridings don't count in the current alliteration of the once beloved party of Brian Peckford.

Opinions will vary!

Wednesday, October 05, 2011

Polling and other fairytales...

The Telegram ran this news story...
Newfoundland Liberals distant third, Tories leading over NDP in Environics poll

A new opinion poll has found that the Newfoundland and Labrador Tories hold a strong lead over their rivals while the Opposition Liberals are in last place among those surveyed.

Thirty-eight per cent of respondents backed the incumbent Progressive Conservatives, compared to 23 per cent for the NDP and nine per cent for the Liberals.

Thirty per cent were undecided.

The online poll was conducted by Environics Research Group and provided exclusively to The Canadian Press.

Unlike traditional telephone polling, in which respondents are randomly selected, the Environics survey was conducted online from Sept. 29 to Oct. 4 among 708 people.

The respondents were chosen from a larger pool of people who were recruited and compensated for participating.
and get this!!
The non-random nature of online polling makes it impossible to determine the statistical accuracy of how the poll reflects the opinions of the general population.

The provincial election is Tuesday.


I had to respond.


Dear Editorial team (in reply to what 'Harvey' has written),
The bigger question here, is why is this news? If it is unscientific, unverifiable, unreliable then why is it news? I don't think of it as news, I believe it's fiction.

So then, why is the Telegram making news out of it? It hasn't appeared in other online news sources... why s the Tely giving it any space?

Unless there's another agenda here at work. Is it pandering to an audience, per chance? If so, who is the audience and does it read the Telegram on the 8th floor of a certain building?

Curiously yours,
Ward Pike